Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the total population for countries or areas, geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the specified population age range for countries or areas with a population of 90,000 or more in 2017, along with geographical aggregates and World Bank income groups as defined in Definition of Regions. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Probabilistic Projections of Total Fertility using WPP 2017 fertility estimates
Decline Curves (based on Double-Logistic Function) from BHM, Median, 80% and 95% prediction intervals

Explanation: These charts of the decline curves are from the Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) of total fertility that has been carried out with fertility estimates from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic double-logistic trajectories is displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The observed five-year decrements by level of total fertility are shown by black dots if they refer to the periods of the fertility transition defined as Phase II (i.e., from high to low fertility). The median projection is the solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95% projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively. Phase I data refer to the period before the start of the fertility transition (if it occurred since 1950). Phase III data refer to the low-fertility post-transition period not modelled using the double-logistic model, but by a first order auto-regressive time series model (AR(1)).

Probabilistic Projections of Total Fertility using WPP 2017 fertility estimates
Projections of Total Fertility: Median, 80% / 95% prediction intervals and high / low WPP fertility variant

Explanation: These charts are from the Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of total fertility that has been carried out with fertility estimates from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic trajectories of total fertility is displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The median projection is the solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95% projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively. The high-low fertility variants correspond to +/- 0.5 child around the median trajectory displayed as blue dashed lines. The replacement-level of 2.1 children per woman is plotted as green horizontal dashed line only for reference.

Probabilistic Projections of life expectancy at birth using WPP 2017 estimates of life expectancy.
5-year Gains Curves (based on double-logistic function) from Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM), Median, 80% and 95% prediction intervals *

Explanation: These charts of the gains in life expectancy at birth are from the Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) of life expectancy at birth that has been carried out with estimates of life expectancy from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic double-logistic trajectories is displayed (gray lines) for illustration.
(*) For most countries having ever experienced 5 per cent or more adult HIV prevalence during the period 1980 to 2015 (18 out of 21 countries), prediction intervals (e.g. 80% and 95%) are based on probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (with non-informative country priors). The median trajectory for these countries has been adjusted to the 2017 WPP deterministic projection that incorporates the impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality. A similar approach was used for the Syrian Arab Republic in light of the mortality crisis currently unfolding in the country.

Probabilistic Projections of male life expectancy at birth using WPP 2017 estimates
Male Life Expectancy at birth: Median, 80% and 95% prediction intervals *

Explanation: These charts are from the correlated male life expectancies at birth that have been carried out with female and male life expectancy estimates from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic trajectories of male life expectancy at birth is displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The median projection is the solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95% projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively.
(*) For most countries having ever experienced 5 per cent or more adult HIV prevalence during the period 1980 to 2015 (18 out of 21 countries), prediction intervals (e.g. 80% and 95%) are based on probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (with non-informative country priors). The median trajectory for these countries has been adjusted to the 2017 WPP deterministic projection that incorporates the impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality. A similar approach was used for the Syrian Arab Republic in light of the mortality crisis currently unfolding in the country.

Probabilistic Projections of female life expectancy at birth using WPP 2017 estimates
Female Life Expectancy at birth: Median, 80% and 95% prediction intervals *

Explanation: These charts are from the Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of female life expectancies at birth that has been carried out with female life expectancy estimates from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic trajectories of female life expectancy at birth is displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The median projection is the solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95% projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively.
(*) For most countries having ever experienced 5 per cent or more adult HIV prevalence during the period 1980 to 2015 (18 out of 21 countries), prediction intervals (e.g. 80% and 95%) are based on probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (with non-informative country priors). The median trajectory for these countries has been adjusted to the 2017 WPP deterministic projection that incorporates the impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality. A similar approach was used for the Syrian Arab Republic in light of the mortality crisis currently unfolding in the country.

Probabilistic projections of the gap between female and male life expectancy at birth
Female-Male gap in life expectancy at birth (in years): Median, 80% and 95% prediction intervals *

Explanation: These charts are from the autoregressive model of the gap between female and male life expectancy at birth that has been carried out with estimates from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic trajectories of gender gap in life expectancy at birth is displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The median projection is the solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95% projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively.
(*) For most countries having ever experienced 5 per cent or more adult HIV prevalence during the period 1980 to 2015 (18 out of 21 countries), prediction intervals (e.g. 80% and 95%) are based on probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (with non-informative country priors). The median trajectory for these countries has been adjusted to the 2017 WPP deterministic projection that incorporates the impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality. A similar approach was used for the Syrian Arab Republic in light of the mortality crisis currently unfolding in the country.

Comparison between male and female life expectancy in the probabilistic projection of male and female life expectancy at birth *

Explanation: These charts show the relationship between probabilistic projections of male and female life expectancies at birth for 2010-2015, 2045-2050 and 2095-2100 that has been carried out with estimates from the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects.
(*) For most countries having ever experienced 5 per cent or more adult HIV prevalence during the period 1980 to 2015 (18 out of 21 countries), prediction intervals (e.g. 80% and 95%) are based on probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth (with non-informative country priors). The median trajectory for these countries has been adjusted to the 2017 WPP deterministic projection that incorporates the impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality. A similar approach was used for the Syrian Arab Republic in light of the mortality crisis currently unfolding in the country.