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Explanation: These
charts are from the Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of total fertility
that have been carried out with fertility estimates from the 2012
Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a
small selection of the probabilistic trajectories of total fertility is
displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The model is using 60,000
trajectories of projected total fertility. The median projection is the
solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95% projection intervals are
displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively. The high-low
fertility variants in the 2012 Revision correspond to +/- 0.5 child
around the median trajectory displayed as blue dashed lines. The
replacement-level of 2.1 children per woman is plotted as green
horizontal dashed line only for reference.
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Source: United
Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2013): World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New
York |
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