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Explanation:
These charts show estimates and projections of the population age 65
and over for 197 countries
and areas with a population of 100,000 or more in 2010. The projections
are based on the probabilistic fertility projections from the 2010
Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic
projections of total fertility had been carried out with a Bayesian
Hierarchical Model. The figures display the high, medium and low variant
of the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects, as well as the
probabilistic median and the 95 as well as 80 percent confidence
intervals of the projections. It should be noted that there can be a
slight difference between these experimental probabilistic population
projections and the official 2010 Revision of the World
Population Prospects. This is due to the fact that the population
projections displayed here were carried out with a random sub-sample of
5,000 probabilistic fertility trajectories from the original 100,000
trajectories of total fertility used in the 2010 Revision.
Since these projections
only include a probabilistic projection of fertility the uncertainty
range appears after 2075, because it just affects children born in
the projection period. For a more realistic estimation of uncertainty in the
population age 65 and over we would have to include a probabilistic
projection of mortality. However, it should be noted that the
uncertainty in mortality projections is usually much lower than
the uncertainty in fertility projections. |
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Source: United
Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2010): Population projections using probabilistic
projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based
on a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). New York
(internal data set) |
