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Probabilistic
Projections |
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Publications in refereed journals |
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Raftery, A.E., N. Li,
H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig. 2012. "Bayesian
probabilistic population projections for all countries." Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (35):13915-13921 |
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Raftery, A.E., N. Li,
H. Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig. 2012. "Bayesian
probabilistic population projections for all countries. - Supporting
information" Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (35):1-7 |
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Link |
Alkema
L, Raftery AE, Gerland P, Clark SJ, Pelletier F, Buettner T , Heilig
GK: "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate
for All Countries." in: Demography (2011), 48:815-839 |
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PDF-File |
Alkema
L, Raftery AE, Gerland P, Clark SJ, Pelletier F, Buettner T , Heilig
GK: Online Resource 1 for "Probabilistic Projections of the Total
Fertility Rate for All Countries." Demography (2011), 48:815-839 |
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Sevcikova H, Alkema L, Raftery AE, (2011):
bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total
Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software, 43(1), 1-29. |
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Informal background papers |
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PDF-File |
White Paper: Probabilistic
Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries for the
2010 World Population Prospects.
Adrian E. Raftery, Leontine Alkema, Patrick Gerland, Samuel J.
Clark, Fran cois Pelletier, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard Heilig, Nan Li,
Hana Sevckova. (United
Nations population Division, Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in
Fertility, New York, 2-4 December 2009) |
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PDF-File |
A probabilistic version of the United Nations
World Population Prospects: Methodological improvements by using
Bayesian fertility and mortality projections.
Gerhard K. Heilig, Thomas Buettner, Nan Li,
Patrick Gerland, Francois Pelletier, Leontine Alkema, Jennifer Chunn,
Hana Ševčíková,
Adrian E. Raftery. EUROSTAT, Work Session on Demographic
Projections, Lisbon,
23 April 2010 |
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PDF-File |
Probabilistic
projections of the total fertility rate.
Leontine Alkema (United
Nations population Division, Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in
Fertility, New York, 2-4 December 2009) |
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PDF-File |
Future population trends found to be highly uncertain in Least
Developed Countries.
Gerhard K. Heilig, Thomas Buettner, Nan Li,
Patrick Gerland, Leontine Alkema, Jennifer Chunn,
Adrian E. Raftery. Unpublished manuscript.
16 March 2010 |
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PowerPoint presentations
(a complete list of all presentations is available
here) |
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PDF-File |
The preparation of the
World Population Prospects (including the probabilistic projections
of fertility)
Gerhard K. Heilig (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Population
Division) |
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PDF-File |
Projecting fertility: A history
Hania Zlotnik (United Nations population
Division, Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in Fertility, New
York, 2-4 December 2009) |
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PDF-File |
Comparison between Bayesian approach and World Population Prospects 2008
projections of total fertility.
Patrick Gerland (United Nations population
Division, Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in Fertility, New
York, 2-4 December 2009) |
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PDF-File |
Probabilistic
Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries: an
introduction to the new 2010 UN fertility projection model.
Leontine Alkema, Adrian Raftery, Patrick Gerland, Sam Clark,
Francois Pelletier, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard Heilig (International
seminar on Population Estimates and Projections: methodologies,
innovations and estimation of target population applied to public
policies (Session 1: Innovations in the Population Projections
at the UN Population Division: Methods, advances and challenges)
organized by the Latin American Population Association (ALAP) -
Research Network on Population Estimates and Projections, and the
National School of Statistics (ENCE) of the Brazilian Institute of
Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), 9 -11
November 2011). |
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PDF-File |
Lessons learned and
applications of the 2010 UN fertility projection methodology.
Patrick Gerland (International seminar on Population Estimates
and Projections: methodologies, innovations and estimation of target
population applied to public policies (Session 1: Innovations in
the Population Projections at the UN Population Division: Methods,
advances and challenges) organized by the Latin American Population
Association (ALAP) - Research Network on Population Estimates and
Projections, and the National School of Statistics (ENCE) of the
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Rio de
Janeiro (Brazil), 9 -11 November 2011). |
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