World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

Figure 5: Distribution of the world population by major area, medium variant, 1950, 2010, 2050 and 2100

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

(Updated: 15 April 2011)

Key result: According to the medium variant, the future distribution of the world population by major area is likely to change significantly.

Over the past century, Asia has been consistently the most populous major area of the world and is expected to remain so during the 21^st century. Therefore, it accounts for the largest share of the world population, amounting to 60 per cent today and expected to decline to 55 per cent in 2050. During the second part of the 21^st century, Asia is expected to lose its claim to having the majority of the world’s inhabitants, because its share of the world population is projected to drop below 50 per cent (it is projected at 45 per cent in 2100).

Whereas between 1950 and 1996, Europe was the second most populous region, Africa overtook it in 1996 and now accounts for nearly 15 per cent of the world population, up from 9 per cent in 1950. Furthermore, because Africa is projected to maintain a rapid population growth over the rest of the century, its population is expected to account for almost 24 per cent of the world population in 2050 and for 35 per cent in 2100.

By contrast, the share of Europe is expected to decline: from nearly 22 per cent in 1950 to less than 7 per cent in 2100. The joint share of Northern America plus Latin America and the Caribbean is not expected to change markedly, passing from 13.6 per cent in 2010 to 12.0 per cent in 2100.