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World Population Prospects,
the 2010 Revision |
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Figure 2:
Estimated and projected population by major area, medium variant ,
1950-2100 (billions) |
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Source: United
Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New
York |
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(Updated: 15 April
2011) |
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Key result:
Asia will remain the most populous major area in the world during
the 21st century but Africa will gain ground as its
population more than triples, passing from 1 billion in 2011 to 3.6
billion in 2100. |
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In 2011, 60 per cent of the world population lived in Asia and 15
per cent in Africa. Until the early 1990s, Europe had been the
second most populous region of the world, but in 1996 the population
of Africa surpassed that of Europe for the first time. Africa’s
population is growing very rapidly, at 2.3 per cent per year during
2010-2015, a rate more than double that of Asia's population (1.0
per cent per year). The population of Africa first surpassed a
billion in 2009 and is expected to add another billion in just 35
years (by 2044), even as its fertility drops from 4.6 children per
woman in 2005-2010 to 3.0 children per woman in 2040-2045. |
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Asia's population, which is currently 4.2 billion, is expected to
peak around the middle of the century (it is projected to reach 5.2
billion in 2052) and to start a slow decline thereafter.
Consequently, whereas in 2100 Asia’s population was four times as
large as that of Africa (4.2 billion vs. 1.0 billion), by 2100 it
may be only 28 per cent higher than that of Africa (4.6 billion in
Asia vs. 3.6 billion in Africa). |
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The populations of all other major areas combined (the Americas,
Europe and Oceania) amount to 1.7 billion in 2011 and are projected
to rise to nearly 2 billion in 2060 and then decline very slowly,
remaining still near 2 billion by the turn of the century. Among
them, the population of Europe is projected to peak around 2025 at
0.74 billion and decline thereafter. The population of Latin America
and the Caribbean is projected to reach a maximum around 2057 at
0.75 billion, but those of Northern America and Oceania are
projected to continue increasing, albeit slowly, until 2100 |
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By the turn of the century, Africa’s population, which in 2011 was
equivalent to 61 per cent of the population of the Americas, Europe
and Oceania taken together, might surpass them by 83 per cent. In
2100, Africa could be five times as populous as Northern America and
over 4 times more populous than either Europe or Latin America and
the Caribbean |
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