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Projections of Total Fertility based on Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM)

BHM Projections of Total Fertility: Based on WPP2010 fertility estimates (Updated 7 April 2011)
Decline Curves (based on Double-Logistic Function) from BHM, Median, 80% and 95% prediction intervals

Explanation: These charts of the decline curves are from the Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) of total fertility that have been carried out with fertility estimates from the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Please note that only a small selection of the probabilistic DL trajectories is displayed (gray lines) for illustration. The model is using 100,000 DL trajectories.

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

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