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Explanation:
These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the
population age 0-14 for 197 countries
and areas
with a population of 100,000 or more in 2010. The projections are based on the probabilistic fertility projections from the 2010
Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic
projections of total fertility had been carried out with a Bayesian
Hierarchical Model. The figures display the high, medium and low variant
of the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects, as well as the
probabilistic median and the 95 as well as 80 percent confidence
intervals of the projections. It should be noted that there can be a
slight difference between these experimental probabilistic population
projections and the official 2010 Revision of the World
Population Prospects. This is due to the fact that the population
projections displayed here were carried out with a random sub-sample of
5,000 probabilistic fertility trajectories from the original 100,000
trajectories of total fertility used in the 2010 Revision. |
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Source: United
Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2010): Population projections using probabilistic
projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based
on a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). New York
(internal data set) |
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Update history:
20 October 2011 (first upload)
26 October 2011 (to replace 85% confidence interval
with 80% confidence interval for consistency) |
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