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WPP 2012: Extended Model Life Tables

Two sets of standard model life table families (Coale-Demeny 1966 and 1989, and United Nations, 1982) are commonly used to derive a variety of mortality indicators and as underlying mortality patterns for estimation and projection by the United Nations and the demographic research community at large. But these two sets of model life tables - designed primarily to be used in developing countries or for historical populations � cover mortality patterns only for a life span from age 20 to 75. A first extension of these model life tables was produced by Thomas Buettner in 1998 which extended the initials sets of model life tables from e(0)=75.0 up to 92.5 using both a limit life table as asymptotic pattern and the classic Lee-Carter approach to derive intermediate age patterns (Buettner, 2002).

With the extension of the projection horizon for all countries up to 2100 as part of the 2012 revision of the UN World Population Prospects, it was necessary to allow life expectancy at birth to go beyond 92.5 years. In addition, in-depth analysis of the initial 1998 extension revealed substantial deviation for out-of-sample predictions compared to the Human Mortality Database experience at very low mortality levels (especially for Coale-Demeny models, see Figure 1 in Willmoth et al., 2009), and the need to improve a smoother transition between the existing set of model life tables up to age 75 and their extension. A new set extended model life tables was computed in Spring 2010 by staff of the Population Division (Gerland and Li) based on the modified Lee-Carter approach. After extensive cross-validation against the Human Mortality Database (HMD) performed by Kirill Andreev some constraints have been imposed to ensure some convergence toward the HMD mortality experience at high levels of e(0). The nine families of model life tables extended up to e(0)=100 were smoothly blended to the existing ones to insure smooth mortality surfaces by age and sex and e(0) levels. The new model life tables can be downloaded below.

Literature: Li, N. and P. Gerland (2011). "Modifying the Lee-Carter Method to Project Mortality Changes up to 2100" Paper presented at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA) in Session 125: Formal Demography I: Mathematical Models and Methods on Friday 1 April - http://paa2011.princeton.edu/sessionViewer.aspx?SessionId=1002 (Download paper)

 

 

Download
EXCEL file

MLT_UN2010-100.xls (Updated 18 June 2010)
Model Life Tables for e0=20 to 100 by 2.5 years increment - organized the same way as for the 1998 revision - the abridged life tables are truncated at age 100

Download
EXCEL file

MLT_UN2010-130.xls (Updated 18 June 2010)
Model Life Tables for e0=20 to 100 by 2.5 years increment up to age 130

Download
EXCEL file

MLT_UN2010-100_1y.xls (Updated 18 June 2010)
Model Life Tables for e0=20 to 100 by 1 year increment - organized the same way as for the 1998 revision - the abridged life tables are truncated at age 100

Download
EXCEL file

MLT_UN2010-130_1.xls (Updated 18 June 2010)
Model Life Tables for e0=20 to 100 by 1 year increments up to age 130

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