World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

(Updated: 15 April 2011)

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Key result: According to the medium variant, the average annual rate of population change is projected to decline in all major areas, except in Europe, and to remain high in Africa.

In 2010-2015, Africa has the highest rate of population change at 2.3 per cent per year. It is followed by Oceania, with 1.5 per cent per year. Asia, Northern America and Latin America and the Caribbean have annual rates of change ranging from 0.9 to 1.1 per cent per year. Europe has the lowest rate of population change, at 0.1 per cent per year.

At some point during 2010-2100, the rates of population change in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe become negative, indicating that their populations decline. Europe is the first to see its rate of population change drop below zero (in 2020-2025), yet it is also the only major area where the annual rate of change increases after a period of decline. Nevertheless, Europe’s rate of population change remains below zero between 2020 and 2095, indicating a lengthy period of population decline

In Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the rate of population change becomes negative in 2055-2060 and remains below zero until 2100. By 2095-2100, both major areas are projected to be declining at a rate of 0.3 per cent per year.

Africa, Northern America and Oceania maintain positive rates of population change over the whole projection period. Africa’s rate of change drops from 2.3 per cent per year in 2010-2015 to 0.6 per cent per year in 2095-2100, when it is still the highest among all major areas. Oceania’s rate of change declines from 1.5 per cent per year in 2010-2015 to 0.2 per cent per year in 2095-2100 and that for Northern America drops from 0.9 per cent per year in 2010-2015 to 0.2 per cent per year in 2095-2100. As a consequence, the populations of these major areas increase markedly: by a factor of 3.5 in Africa, 1.8 in Oceania and 1.5 in Northern America. Furthermore, the realization of these projections would produce populations in these major areas that would still have a significant potential for growth, especially that in Africa.