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1. Figures: Input

Fertility

Fertility-Change Model

Probabilistic Projections

Life Expectancy at Birth

Life-Exp.-Change Model: Female

Prob. Projections: Female

Prob. Projections: Male

Prob. Proj,: M/F gap

Prob. Proj.: M/F comparison

Prob. Projections vs. WPP2010

2. Figures: Results

Total Population

Population Age 0-14

Population Age 15-64

Population Age 65+

Child Dependency Ratio

Old-age Dependency Ratio

Total Dependency Ratio

3. Data

Input Data

Summary Output Data

Other Information

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Contact: Projection Section

 

 

Probabilistic Population Projections: Total Population (thousands)

Based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects.

Explanation: These charts show estimates and probabilistic projections of the total population for 196 countries and areas with a population of 100,000 or more in 2010. The projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the (deterministic) high and low variant of the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects, as well as the probabilistic median and the 95 as well as 80 percent confidence intervals of the probabilistic projections.

It should be noted that most likely there is a (small) difference between the median of these probabilistic population projections and the medium variant of the official 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. This is due to the fact that the population projections displayed here include probabilistic projections of life expectancy at birth, while the 2010 Revision was based on a deterministic projection of life expectancy at birth.

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010): Population projections using probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). New York (internal data set)

Update history:
22 September 2011 (1st Revision; First upload; only probabilistic projection of fertility)
26 October 2011 (1st Revision; 85% confidence interval replaced with 80% confidence interval for consistency)
15 November 2012 (2nd Revision; Includes probabilistic projection of total fertility and life expectancy at birth)

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